FAO Food Chain Crisis - Fall Armyworm Forecasting
Fall Armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) presence is confirmed in all Eastern African countries except in Djibouti. In Ethiopia, the forecast period (January–March) coincides with the growing of irrigated maize and the maize crop, a preferred host, will be at risk. In Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda, these months coincide with the off-season period, and the pest will therefore have limited access to maize crops. This means that the likelihood of pest spread and damage will be low.
- In North Africa, Egypt has officially reported the presence of FAW on maize fields in southern Egypt. Sudan has been reporting the introduction of the pest since 2017 and the Nile Valley may be considered the probable route of introduction to Egypt. The climate in Egypt and Sudan allows for continuous planting of many host plants, which increase the likelihood of pest spread and damage.
- In Southern Africa, maize will be in the vegetative stages in almost all countries. Therefore, there will be a high risk of FAW amplification.
- In Central Africa, the likelihood of FAW spreading and amplification depends on the availability of the host plant in different countries.
- In West Africa, the likelihood of FAW spreading and amplification ranges from Nil to Moderate, depending on the availability of the maize crop.